Harris has to dazzle within the debate

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This needs to be straightforward. Affirmation that Kamala Harris is sane and sentient would — in a great world — be greater than sufficient for her to beat Donald Trump in Tuesday evening’s debate.

Trump’s flaws are too well-known to wish rehearsing. Even Dick Cheney — no one’s thought of a liberal — has introduced that he can be voting for Harris. The previous Republican vice-president labelled Trump as the best menace to the American republic in its 248-year historical past.

However the actuality is that Harris must do far more than give an ample efficiency. The final main ballot taken earlier than the controversy prompt that Trump now has a one-point lead over Harris.

In fact, the New York Occasions/Siena ballot is only one of many. Different polls in latest weeks have tended to recommend that Harris has a slim benefit within the well-liked vote — with the essential swing states primarily too near name. However given the bias towards the Democrats within the electoral school system, Harris must be a number of factors forward within the well-liked vote to make sure of successful. And no polls recommend that she has but established that sort of lead.

So the Harris camp has cause to be nervous. The surge in pleasure and help that she generated after changing Joe Biden on the prime of the ticket in July is dissipating.

The hopes that Harris would get an actual bounce within the polls after the Democratic conference — and open up a considerable lead over Trump — weren’t met. Studies of disarray within the Trump camp haven’t translated right into a weakening in help for the Republican.

May it’s that Harris’s marketing campaign has not been the brilliantly executed triumph portrayed by some pundits? One apparent weak point is that Harris has been very reluctant to threat straying off script, by giving interviews to the media. The primary tv interview that she did was within the firm of her working mate, Tim Walz — which prompt a insecurity, as if the would-be president wanted a chaperone to get by some slightly light questioning.

Maybe because of this many citizens nonetheless really feel they don’t know sufficient about Harris to make a correct judgment. Within the latest ballot some 28 per cent say they should study extra about her; in comparison with simply 9 per cent who need to study extra about Trump.

However that data hole additionally presents Harris with a chance. The talk offers her an opportunity to outline herself for the various voters who can be getting their first good take a look at the Democratic candidate. Harris actually must seize that chance. This Tuesday’s face-off with Trump could also be her final actual probability to shift the momentum of the race — since no additional debates are but scheduled.

Trump and the Republicans try exhausting to outline Harris as a San Francisco liberal and a “DEI” candidate — who has risen to the highest as a result of she is a Black girl, slightly than on benefit. Harris ought to take the chance to underline that she has lived a a lot much less privileged life than Trump, who was born into cash and privilege.

Some 61 per cent of the voters say that they need to see “main change” after the Biden presidency. Harris has by some means to persuade voters that she will be able to signify that change, regardless of being Biden’s vice-president. Her proposal for worth controls on some items — whereas panned by many economists — often is the sort of eye-catching suggestion that truly resonates with Individuals who’re scuffling with inflation.

But the historical past of presidential election debates additionally means that they typically activate a single one-line zinger. Ronald Reagan’s genial riposte to Jimmy Carter — “There you go once more” — was retrospectively deemed to be a disarming masterstroke. Within the 1988 vice-presidential debate, Lloyd Bentsen memorably squelched Dan Quayle, who had unwisely in contrast himself to John F Kennedy, by telling him — “Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy.” (Michael Dukakis and Bentsen nonetheless misplaced the election to George HW Bush and Quayle.)

In June’s debate, Trump delivered the killer line that summed up Biden’s surprising deterioration — “I actually don’t know what he stated on the finish of that sentence. I don’t suppose he is aware of what he stated both.”

That second ought to function a reminder to not underestimate Trump’s skills as a debater or a tv performer. Biden’s debate efficiency was unexpectedly terrible; however Trump additionally did unexpectedly effectively. Whereas he delivered the standard stream of lies and non-sequiturs, he additionally got here throughout as extra disciplined and faster on his ft than in some earlier debates.

Consistent with her marketing campaign’s technique to outline Trump as bizarre — and to come back throughout as joyful, slightly than indignant — Harris could search for a chance to chortle at Trump, slightly than to denounce him.

Hoping that Trump will self-sabotage with some horrible outburst — or for the chance to ship a fast put-down — the Harris marketing campaign argued for each candidates’ microphones to stay open all through the controversy. It misplaced that skirmish. So Harris should discover one other solution to win the battle.

The uncomfortable reality is that if the polls don’t shift sharply after Tuesday’s debate, Harris might be heading for defeat and the US is heading for a second Trump presidency.

gideon.rachman@ft.com